A Rambling Post on the Baseball Hall of Fame
First of all, congratulations to the two newest members of the Hall of Fame, Cal Ripken, Jr. and Tony Gwynn. Both were fantastic athletes and seemignly great guys who unquestionably deserved admittance and will fit in to Cooperstown quite nicely.
If the biggest story of January 9th was the election of Ripken and Gwynn, then story #1a would be the non-election of Mark McGwire. McGwire was unlikely to be elected this year, with many writers pulling the Stephen Colbert "finger wag of shame" out on him. However, it's the lack of votes that is the surprise - he only received 25% of the vote this year. It was expected that some voters didn't cast their ballots in favor of him for the first season to send a message, but the real question is how many will never be voting for him? If his voting was closer to 50%, he would have a serious case for 2008, but with only half of that number voting yes for him, it seems unlikely he'll be moving on any time soon.
I'm torn on McGwire's place in the Hall. He is one of the greatest sluggers to ever step between the baselines, but the media's usage of him as the poster child of steroids and the embarrassing appearance in front of the Congress of the United States. However, he's only known to have taken androtestosterone; outside of an allegation from Jose Canseco, he has no solid connection with steroids. In fact, when he was an active player, McGwire was never tested for steroids because baseball didn't test them. Yet a large number of voters find it necessary to treat him like a convicted felon drug trafficker.
I'm not saying McGwire should be in the Hall; I am not convinced he should be. What I do know is that I don't feel comfortable with sports writers treating themselves like the moral measure of America.
Orel Hersisher, Albert Belle, Paul O'Neill, Bret Saberhagen, Jose Canseco, Tony Fernandez, Dante Bichette, Eric Davis, Bobby Bonilla, Ken Caminiti, Jay Buhner, Scott Brosius, Wally Joyner, Devon White and Bobby Witt all failed to garner 5% of the vote, resulting them from being dropped from the ballot in their first year of eligibility. The only real surprises in this list to me are Albert Belle and Orel Hershiser; I thought Hershiser would stick around a bit because of his innings streak despite a lack of a truly complete candidacy, while Belle would stay for a year or two because of his great peak. While his surliness and lack of ability to deal with the media (or other people, really) undoubtedly contributed, Belle's lack of longetivity or threatening any major single season records are what kept him from the Hall.
Steve Garvey's eligibility is now over after receiving 115 votes, good for 21.1% of the vote. Garvey had a respectable career, but one that I don't believe is close to the Hall of Fame level.
Now left on the ballot are Goose Gossage (71.2%), Jim Rice (63.5%), Andre Dawson (56.7%), Bert Blyleven (47.7%), Lee Smith (39.8%), Jack Morris (37.1%), McGwire (23.5%), Tommy John (22.9%), Dave Concepcion (13.6%), Alan Trammell (13.4%), Dave Parker (11.4%), Don Mattingly (9.9%), Dale Murphy (9.2%) and Harold Baines (5.3%). Next year's list of first year candidates is weak, with a lack of a single candidate who even truly deserves consideration. I expect Gossage will be voted in - the role of the closer is continued to be defined in the Hall of Fame, and with Gossage's continual gains in votes and support from other Hall of Famers, it should just be a matter of time until Gossage is in. Lee Smith, who once held the record for most career saves until 2006 when Trevor Hoffman broke it, might get elected but it won't be for at least another three years.
Bert Blyleven has the support of a good number of statistical thinkers, but that apparently does not spread to 75% of the BBWAA. I don't know if he'll ever be elected, but I do believe he is deserving. Jack Morris is a good case for if he should be elected or be near the band of pitchers who are just short of deserving of election. Tommy JOhn's support comes from primarily for his longetivity (with some arguing he should be in because he has a surgery named after him, though the ridiculousness of that point is one I won't even begin to consider).
Jim Rice and Andre Dawson seem to be in the same boat - dominating in the 1980s, but falling short of recognition in the Hall. The real question is: are they really deserving?
Dave Concepcion's candidacy comes from his run with the famous Big Red Machine of the 1970s. Alan Trammell lost votes this year, but I believe that's just a one year hit due to appearing on the ballot with, and losing votes to, Cal Ripken. I believe a few voters decided that since they'd already be voting for one shortstop from the 1980s AL, they couldn't vote for two. Dave Parker and Dale Murphy are like Jim Rice or Andre Dawson without playing a large city for an entire career. Don Mattingly is more of a woulda should coulda case, due to his injuries.
Finally, it's pleasantly surprising to see Harold Baines stick around for another year. I don't expect he'll be elected, and I'm not even sure he should be; but he was very productive for a very long time. The argument he shouldn't be considered because he was a designated hitter for so long is a fallacy, as designated hitters are an official position of baseball. It's not like his numbers come merely from taking batting practice in a little league park.
